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Arabica holds mid-range (52nd pctile) at 335.9¢/lb after a +3.1% session. The signal is at origin: Minas Gerais logged 1978% of normal seasonal rain during harvest, and a strong real (18th pctile USD/BRL) keeps Brazilian sellers on the sidelines — both supportive.
Rain-related quality risk on Brazil lots now in drying is the variable to watch over 7–14 days. Stable origins offer little urgency at current levels; documented needs over speculation.
· [auction] El Injerto I (Geisha natural, 91.86) sells at $449.10/lb — Guatemala COE
· [interested source] Importer: "Brazil — why it's worth booking before September"
· Fairtrade raises minimum coffee prices effective December 2026
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